Understanding gravity waves can help severe weather
forecasters better predict where an outbreak is likely to occur, and how
powerful it could potentially become.
Credit for various parts of this section go to:
Steven Koch, Howard Bluestein, James Holton, and Joseph Schaefer.
PART II: Using Knowledge of Gravity Waves in Operational Forecasting
Now that you know what gravity waves are, how does
one detect them and use them in forecasting? Two key methods are
microbarographs and satellites.
A microbarograph is a sensitive instrument that can
record pressure fluctuations with 0.001 millibar precision. Armed with
this tool, forecasters can detect minute pressure changes associated with
the waves this is especially useful if there are no visible signs of the
waves (i.e., condensation).
Visible satellite imagery has 1-kilometer
resolution (from operational geosynchronous satellites such as GOES). This
is only useful if the gravity waves are strong enough to force parcels
above their LCL or LFC. If there are any clouds induced by the waves,
there's a good chance visible satellite imagery will detect them.
The forecaster now knows the extent and amplitude
of a series of gravity waves racing across a region. How is this knowledge
useful for predicting where and when thunderstorms will break out (or of
they will)? If one knows the ambient LFC and the amplitude of the
oncoming waves, one can predict whether or not the waves will induce
convection and where this is likely to occur. The easiest example to
understand is gravity waves approaching a dryline. A dryline is an
unstable boundary that typically only needs a little "trigger" to
initiate convection (a sharp temperature/dewpoint gradient). That trigger
can come in the form of gravity waves. This is precisely what happened in
the Jarrell, TX tornado outbreak on May 27, 1997. Gravity wave-induced
condensation ripples were traveling SSE across Texas, and by the early
afternoon, they encountered a substantial dryline. In less than one hour,
towering thunderstorms achieved severe limits and spawned numerous
tornadoes that day, including several F5's.
Credit for various parts of this section go to:
Steven Koch and Tobias Kerzenmacher
Brian McNoldy for MESO
http://www.mcwar.org
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